Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
AI Summary:
Kathmandu city is projected to experience more intense and frequent rainfall events, leading to increased flood hazard magnitude and extent. The historical 100-year return period flood discharge will correspond to a 25-year return period future flood.AI Topics:
Increased rainfall extremes cause severe urban flooding in cities with adverse socio-economic consequences, and Kathmandu city is no exception. Rainfall events are projected to become more intense and frequent in a warm and wet future, and they pose a major challenge to the sustainable development of Kathmandu city. This paper analyses historical extreme rainfall patterns across the city and uses these as the basis for future projections in combination with a range of General Circulation Models. Future projections of extreme rainfall are then fed into the numerical flood model HAIL-CAESAR (Lisflood), using a high-resolution digital elevation model of Kathmandu. We show that rainfall intensity, such as the annual maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day), is projected to increase by up to 72% in the future, and the historical 100-year return period rainfall will become a 20 or 25-year return period rainfall. The flood modelling results show that the future flood hazard (magnitude and extent) will increase. The historical 100-year return period flood discharge will correspond to a 25-year return period future flood. A 100-year period flood discharge is likely to increase up to 72% (37% median) in the future. Area of land inundated by more than 1 m in a 100-year return period flood event could increase from 11.7 km2 to 23 km2 in the future. Furthermore, the location and timing of rainfall maxima affect the peak, timing, and location of flood hazards. This analysis can serve as a scientific basis to assess future flood-induced risk in Kathmandu in response to climate change.
Shrestha, Dibesh
Author
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listBasnyat, Divas B.
Author
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listGyawali, Januka
Author
Scott Watson, C. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie and Elliott, John R. (2024) City-scale high-resolution flood models and the role of topographic data: a case study of Kathmandu, Nepal. Geocarto International, 39 (1): 2387073. ISSN 1010-6049
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listCreed, Maggie
Author
Thapa, Saraswati and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Creed, Maggie J. and Borthwick, Alistair and Watson, C. Scott and Muthusamy, Manoranjan (2024) Sediment transport and flood risk: impact of newly constructed embankments on river morphology and flood dynamics in Kathmandu, Nepal. Water Resources Research, 60 (10): e2024WR037. ISSN 1944-7973
Thapa, Saraswati and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Creed, Maggie J. and Mudd, Simon M. and Attal, Mikael and Borthwick, Alistair and Ghimire, Bhola N. and Scott Watson, C. (2024) The impact of sediment flux and calibre on flood risk in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 49 (2). pp. 706-727. ISSN 0197-9337
Scott Watson, C. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie and Elliott, John R. (2024) City-scale high-resolution flood models and the role of topographic data: a case study of Kathmandu, Nepal. Geocarto International, 39 (1): 2387073. ISSN 1010-6049
See full publications listSinclair, Hugh D.
Author
Thapa, Saraswati and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Creed, Maggie J. and Borthwick, Alistair and Watson, C. Scott and Muthusamy, Manoranjan (2024) Sediment transport and flood risk: impact of newly constructed embankments on river morphology and flood dynamics in Kathmandu, Nepal. Water Resources Research, 60 (10): e2024WR037. ISSN 1944-7973
Thapa, Saraswati and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Creed, Maggie J. and Mudd, Simon M. and Attal, Mikael and Borthwick, Alistair and Ghimire, Bhola N. and Scott Watson, C. (2024) The impact of sediment flux and calibre on flood risk in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 49 (2). pp. 706-727. ISSN 0197-9337
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listGolding, Brian
Author
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listMuthusamy, Manoranjan
Author
Thapa, Saraswati and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Creed, Maggie J. and Borthwick, Alistair and Watson, C. Scott and Muthusamy, Manoranjan (2024) Sediment transport and flood risk: impact of newly constructed embankments on river morphology and flood dynamics in Kathmandu, Nepal. Water Resources Research, 60 (10): e2024WR037. ISSN 1944-7973
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listShrestha, Shankar
Author
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listScott Watson, C.
Author
Thapa, Saraswati and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Creed, Maggie J. and Mudd, Simon M. and Attal, Mikael and Borthwick, Alistair and Ghimire, Bhola N. and Scott Watson, C. (2024) The impact of sediment flux and calibre on flood risk in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 49 (2). pp. 706-727. ISSN 0197-9337
Scott Watson, C. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie and Elliott, John R. (2024) City-scale high-resolution flood models and the role of topographic data: a case study of Kathmandu, Nepal. Geocarto International, 39 (1): 2387073. ISSN 1010-6049
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listSubedi, Divya L.
Author
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listHaiju, Rojina
Author
Shrestha, Dibesh and Basnyat, Divas B. and Gyawali, Januka and Creed, Maggie J. and Sinclair, Hugh D. and Golding, Brian and Muthusamy, Manoranjan and Shrestha, Shankar and Scott Watson, C. and Subedi, Divya L. and Haiju, Rojina (2023) Rainfall extremes under future climate change with implications for urban flood risk in Kathmandu, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 97: 103997. ISSN 2212-4209
See full publications listAvailable under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.
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