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Burns, Nathan Patrick and Young, David and Sherriff, Andrea and Black, Peter and Blackshaw, Al and Kelly, Louise (2025) Tracking the success of contextual offer students at one Scottish higher education institution. Higher Education Quarterly, 79 (1): e70011. ISSN 0951-5224

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This study examines the academic outcomes of students who received contextual offers to higher education. The results show that once controlling for various factors, contextual offer students have a greater than 80% chance of progression at the end of first year and a greater than 60% chance of completing their Bachelor's with Honours degree within 4 years.

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Abstract

Knowing the academic outcomes of students who received contextual offers to higher education is important in understanding whether or not Scotland's Widening Access efforts have been successful in delivering impact to those from socio-economically deprived backgrounds. This study showed that once controlling for academic cohort, sex, ethnicity and faculty, contextual offer students have a greater than 80% chance of progression at the end of first year and a greater than 60% chance of completing their Bachelor's with Honours degree within 4 years. However, for the data used in this study, contextual offer students were not as successful as their standard offer peers. Models also showed that students from more deprived areas (measured using SIMD Quintile) were less likely to be successful compared to their peers from less deprived areas, even when they had the same levels of prior attainment in secondary school exams (Scottish Higher). This study calls for Scotland's Widening Access targets to focus not only on admissions but also on improving the academic outcomes of disadvantaged students' throughout their time at university.

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