Pouwels, Koen B. and Eyre, David W. and House, Thomas and Aspey, Ben and Matthews, Philippa C. and Stoesser, Nicole and Newton, John N. and Diamond, Ian and Studley, Ruth and Taylor, Nick G. H. and Bell, John I. and Farrar, Jeremy and Kolenchery, Jaison and Marsden, Brian D. and Hoosdally, Sarah and Jones, E. Yvonne and Stuart, David I. and Crook, Derrick W. and Peto, Tim E. A. and Walker, A. Sarah and Wei, Jia and Pritchard, Emma and Vihta, Karina-Doris and Doherty, George and Kavanagh, James and Chau, Kevin K. and Hatch, Stephanie B. and Ebner, Daniel and Ferreira, Lucas Martins and Christott, Thomas and Dejnirattisai, Wanwisa and Mongkolsapaya, Juthathip and Cameron, Sarah and Tamblin-Hopper, Phoebe and Wolna, Magda and Brown, Rachael and Cornall, Richard and Screaton, Gavin and Lythgoe, Katrina and Bonsall, David and Golubchik, Tanya and Fryer, Helen and Thomas, Tina and Ayoubkhani, Daniel and Black, Russell and Felton, Antonio and Crees, Megan and Jones, Joel and Lloyd, Lina and Sutherland, Esther and Cox, Stuart and Paddon, Kevin and James, Tim and Robotham, Julie V. and Birrell, Paul and Jordan, Helena and Sheppard, Tim and Athey, Graham and Moody, Dan and Curry, Leigh and Brereton, Pamela and Jarvis, Ian and Godsmark, Anna and Morris, George and Mallick, Bobby and Eeles, Phil and Hay, Jodie and VanSteenhouse, Harper and Lee, Jessica and White, Sean and Evans, Tim and Bloemberg, Lisa and Allison, Katie and Pandya, Anouska and Davis, Sophie and Conway, David I. and MacLeod, Margaret and Cunningham, Chris (2024) Improving the representativeness of UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification. Nature Communications, 15: 5340. ISSN 2041-1723

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Abstract

Population-representative estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and antibody levels in specific geographic areas at different time points are needed to optimise policy responses. However, even population-wide surveys are potentially impacted by biases arising from differences in participation rates across key groups. Here, we used spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification models to UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative estimates of PCR positivity (6,496,052 tests) and antibody prevalence (1,941,333 tests) for different regions, ages and ethnicities (7-December-2020 to 4-May-2022). Not accounting for vaccination status through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR positivity, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the population (up to 21 percentage points), particularly in groups with low vaccine uptake in the general population. There was marked variation in the relative contribution of different areas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease surveys should take into account major drivers of outcomes of interest that may also influence participation, with vaccination being an important factor to consider.

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Title Improving the representativeness of UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification
Creators Pouwels, Koen B. and Eyre, David W. and House, Thomas and Aspey, Ben and Matthews, Philippa C. and Stoesser, Nicole and Newton, John N. and Diamond, Ian and Studley, Ruth and Taylor, Nick G. H. and Bell, John I. and Farrar, Jeremy and Kolenchery, Jaison and Marsden, Brian D. and Hoosdally, Sarah and Jones, E. Yvonne and Stuart, David I. and Crook, Derrick W. and Peto, Tim E. A. and Walker, A. Sarah and Wei, Jia and Pritchard, Emma and Vihta, Karina-Doris and Doherty, George and Kavanagh, James and Chau, Kevin K. and Hatch, Stephanie B. and Ebner, Daniel and Ferreira, Lucas Martins and Christott, Thomas and Dejnirattisai, Wanwisa and Mongkolsapaya, Juthathip and Cameron, Sarah and Tamblin-Hopper, Phoebe and Wolna, Magda and Brown, Rachael and Cornall, Richard and Screaton, Gavin and Lythgoe, Katrina and Bonsall, David and Golubchik, Tanya and Fryer, Helen and Thomas, Tina and Ayoubkhani, Daniel and Black, Russell and Felton, Antonio and Crees, Megan and Jones, Joel and Lloyd, Lina and Sutherland, Esther and Cox, Stuart and Paddon, Kevin and James, Tim and Robotham, Julie V. and Birrell, Paul and Jordan, Helena and Sheppard, Tim and Athey, Graham and Moody, Dan and Curry, Leigh and Brereton, Pamela and Jarvis, Ian and Godsmark, Anna and Morris, George and Mallick, Bobby and Eeles, Phil and Hay, Jodie and VanSteenhouse, Harper and Lee, Jessica and White, Sean and Evans, Tim and Bloemberg, Lisa and Allison, Katie and Pandya, Anouska and Davis, Sophie and Conway, David I. and MacLeod, Margaret and Cunningham, Chris
Identification Number 10.1038/s41467-024-49201-4
Date 24 June 2024
Divisions College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences > School of Medicine, Dentistry & Nursing > Dental School
Publisher Nature Research
Additional Information This study is funded by the Department of Health and Social Care with in-kind support from the Welsh Government, the Department of Health on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government and the Scottish Government. A.S.W., T.E.A.P., N.S., D.W.E. and K.B.P. are supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance at the University of Oxford in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) (NIHR200915). A.S.W. and T.E.A.P. are also supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. K.B.P. is also supported by the Huo Family Foundation. A.S.W. is also supported by core support from the Medical Research Council UK to the MRC Clinical Trials Unit [MC_UU_12023/22] and is an NIHR Senior Investigator. P.C.M. is funded by Wellcome (intermediate fellowship, grant ref 110110/Z/15/Z) and holds an NIHR Oxford BRC Senior Fellowship award. D.W.E. is supported by a Robertson Fellowship and an NIHR Oxford BRC Senior Fellowship. N.S. is an Oxford Martin Fellow and holds an NIHR Oxford BRC Senior Fellowship.
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Depositing User Unnamed user with email ejo1f20@soton.ac.uk
Date Deposited 11 Jun 2025 16:36
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